COVID-19 weekly surveillance report
The Isle of Man Government Public Health Directorate publish a weekly report which provides a summary of indicators used to understand the status of the current wave of Covid-19 in the Isle of Man.
Weekly reports can be found below, and this page is updated every Thursday with the previous weeks’ report.
The purpose of the public health surveillance report is to provide a clear and trusted data source which will help individuals, businesses and the wider community to make positive choices about how they manage the risk of COVID-19.
Whilst COVID-19 remains in our community, it is strongly advised that everyone wears a face covering when in close contact, enclosed and confined places, as well as maintaining good hygiene, increasing space and ventilation. View more information on the current guidance.
Summary of latest report (14 October 2021)
- The current 7-day average for confirmed positive cases is around 60.
- The current overall trend of confirmed cases is slightly increasing.
- Most recent 7-day daily average test positivity rate is 24.8%.
- The percentage of PCR tests from the LFD pathway is slightly increasing, with percentage of UK Arrival tests slightly increasing over the last two weeks.
- 89% of positive PCR tests are from the LFD pathway.
- Over the last 7 days most confirmed positive cases have been in the 10 – 14 age group, most of these cases are unvaccinated.
- The snapshot census of the Hospital shows 2 patients currently admitted with a COVID positive status.
- Daily and Weekly deaths continue to show a level trend overall.
Due to changes in operational notifications systems to align with the Public Health Weekly Surveillance Report's methodology, the data for unconfirmed COVID deaths on page 13 of the report has been removed and will not feature in future reports. Confirmed COVID related deaths data will continue to be published.
This report is provided for transparency, and readers are encouraged to think carefully about the measures we each can take to prevent further spread of COVID-19.
What trends we expect to see over the next few months
Currently, the wave dynamics indicate a significant fall from peak daily new cases to a current position of slower decline/plateau, with notable daily variation as would be expected for a small population. This position is likely to continue while there is circulating virus, susceptible individuals in the population and stable patterns of behaviour/mixing. A fourth wave is predicted for the UK during Autumn/Winter 2021-22, although the timing of this is uncertain. It is reasonable to expect a similar wave here in the Isle of Man.
Over the past week, there has continued to be a rising incidence in secondary school aged children, particularly in the 10 – 14 age group. Rates in older children/young people (15 – 19) have stabilised and there has been a small increase in infections in the 5 – 9 age group. This week has also seen rises in some adult age groups.
Autumn/Winter will likely see significant changes in mixing patterns (and hence COVID-19 and other respiratory pathogen transmission) due to people spending more time indoors with lower levels of fresh air/ventilation.
Winter pressures on health and care may be significantly increased this year if a further wave of COVID-19 coincides with increased incidence of other seasonal respiratory infections (flu, RSV, etc) which were largely suppressed last year, including on Island, due to restrictions on mixing in place across.
Reviewed: October 2021